Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction and Betting Tips for the upcoming Ligue 1 match, set for Saturday, February 21, 2026, at 18:00 GMT. You can catch the action live via beIN Connect or Fanatiz USA at the Stadium de Toulouse. Referee Benoît Millot is expected to keep things under control today.
The hosts currently sit 10th in the table while Paris FC is struggling down in 15th position. Statistical data shows Toulouse averages 1.73 goals at home, whereas the visitors are dealing with a massive list of absentees. Expect a high intensity game as both sides look for crucial points.
Toulouse vs Paris FC Key Facts and Stats
Toulouse is currently unbeaten in their last two matches played at the Stadium de Toulouse.
The visitors have managed to pick up only six points from their last five league games.
Statistical records show that 55 percent of Toulouse home matches end with over 2.5 goals.
Paris FC enters this contest with ten first team players ruled out through injury or suspension.
The average number of goals per match for Toulouse when playing at home is 3.09.
Both teams have scored in 64 percent of matches played by Paris FC on the road.
High offensive pressure with an average of 14.73 shots per match.
Entertaining home style with 55% of games ending over 2.5 goals.
Strong attacking efficiency with 1.73 goals scored per home game.
Ability to draw fouls with an average of 13.09 won per game.
- Toulouse's Weaknesses
Aggressive defensive play leading to 13.64 fouls committed per match.
Difficulty keeping clean sheets with 1.36 goals conceded per home match.
Missing key striker Frank Magri who averages 0.36 goals per 90 minutes.
League Position
15
+ Paris FC's Strengths
Effective road performance with a current two match unbeaten away streak.
Highly active offensive games with a 64% BTTS rate on the road.
Individual brilliance of Ilan Kebbal who has scored 8 goals this season.
Disciplined play only receiving an average of 1.36 cards per match.
- Paris FC's Weaknesses
Very weak attacking threat averaging only 9.55 shots per match.
Extremely thin squad due to seven injuries and three major suspensions.
Match Preview
Carles Martinez has quite a puzzle on his hands this week. Even though Toulouse is sitting comfortably in the middle of the pack, they really need to find some consistency at home. Still, the vibe around the Stadium de Toulouse is mostly positive lately.
The team is missing Frank Magri, which is a big blow since he is one of their most efficient scorers per 90 minutes. That said, Yann Gboho and Santiago Hidalgo should step up. Hidalgo averages 0.56 goals per 90, so he's the one to watch.
Defensively, the suspension of Mark McKenzie is a bit annoying for the Violets. They already concede 1.36 goals on average when playing in front of their fans. Even so, they face a team that has been struggling to find the net recently.
On the other side, Stephane Gilli must be pulling his hair out. Paris FC is traveling with a skeleton crew because of a massive injury list. Important players like Maxime Lopez and Adama Camara are out due to silly yellow card accumulation.
Ilan Kebbal is basically their only hope right now. He has 8 goals this season and usually plays almost every minute. If he doesn't produce something magical, it is hard to see how they will manage to bother the Toulouse keeper.
Looking at the stats, Paris FC only averages 3.36 shots on target per match away from home. That is quite low for a team in this league. They will need to be extremely clinical if they want to keep their Winning French Ligue 1 Predictions hopes alive.
Toulouse FC winger Aron Dönnum has been sidelined for Saturday’s Ligue 1 match against Paris FC following an "internal decision." Despite training all week, the Norwegian international was excluded by coach Carles Martinez Novell, who declined to provide specific details regarding the disciplinary measure. After a recent dip in performance and a loss to Le Havre, the Violets aim to stabilize their form without the 27-year-old attacker.
W. Kamanzi, C. Cásseres Jr., P. Diop, A. Dønnum S. Hidalgo, Y. Gboho
FW
Emersonn
OUT
A. Francis(OUT),
R. Messali(QUES),
F. Magri(OUT),
I. Azizi(OUT),
M. McKenzie(OUT),
Paris FC (5-4-1)
Stephane Gilli
GK
K. Trapp
DF
A. Gory, M. Mbow, T. Kolodziejczak, Otávio, N. Sangui
MF
I. Kebbal, V. Marchetti, M. Munetsi, M. Simon
FW
C. Immobile
OUT
R. Riou(OUT),
H. Traoré(OUT),
S. Alakouch(OUT),
P. Hamel(OUT),
A. Camara(OUT),
R. Matondo(OUT),
M. López(OUT),
S. Chergui(OUT),
T. De Smet(OUT),
L. Gueye(OUT),
Referee
Benoît MILLOT
Prediction
1X
Toulouse enters this contest with a clear physical advantage given their relative squad stability compared to the visitors. Playing at the Stadium de Toulouse has seen them produce 1.73 goals per game, which is quite decent for a mid table side. Since Paris FC is arriving without several suspended starters, the home team should control the tempo and avoid a defeat in front of their fans.
The hosts are currently on a two match unbeaten run at home and have shown enough resilience to handle lower ranked opponents. Paris FC is missing ten players through injury and suspension, making a road victory extremely unlikely for them. With Yann Gboho leading the line and 1.45 points per match at home, Toulouse is well positioned to secure at least a point on Saturday.
Over 1.5 Goals
This match features two teams that struggle to keep clean sheets, which often leads to multiple goals in their encounters. Toulouse home matches this season have averaged 3.09 total goals, with 64 percent of them exceeding the 1.5 threshold. Even with some key strikers missing, the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest that we will see at least two goals by the final whistle.
Toulouse has found the net 1.73 times on average at home, while Paris FC has a high BTTS rate of 64 percent in their away matches. This suggests that even a depleted visiting side often finds a way to get on the scoresheet. With both managers likely to use attacking formations, the likelihood of a low scoring 0:0 or 1:0 result remains statistically very low.
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FAQ – Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction
Who will win between Toulouse and Paris FC?
Toulouse are clear favorites due to their home form and the massive injury crisis currently affecting the Paris FC squad.
Where can I watch The Toulouse vs Paris FC live?
The Toulouse vs Paris FC Ligue 1 match will be broadcast live on Fanatiz USA and beIN Connect.
What time does Toulouse vs Paris FC start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT) on Saturday February 21, 2026.
Who is the referee for this match?
The match will be officiated by Benoît Millot at the Stadium de Toulouse.
Are there any major absentees for the visitors?
Yes, Paris FC is missing ten players, including key figures like Maxime Lopez and Adama Camara due to suspensions.
Alexandru Florin is a football betting expert, providing tips and accumulator predictions for xpertstats.com since 2022. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, he delivers well-researched insights and reliable advice for bettors aiming for long-term profit.
