St Pauli vs Hamburger Prediction and Betting Tips, scheduled for Friday, January 23, 2026, at 19:30 GMT. The match will be broadcast live on BBC Sport and Sky Sports Bundesliga 1 from the Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg. The local fans are buzzing because this is the biggest game of the year.
St Pauli sits at the bottom of the table, desperate for points against a Hamburger SV side that is just five points clear. It is a true six pointer in the north. Before we dive into the data, check out Your guide to Bundesliga Predictions for more expert insights.
St Pauli vs Hamburger Key Facts and Stats
St Pauli sits at the bottom of the table after managing just one win recently.
Hamburger SV has struggled significantly on the road scoring only 0.5 goals per match.
The previous derby in August ended in a clean 2.0 victory for the home side.
Both teams are facing significant injury concerns with key defenders like Hountondji missing this clash.
Recent head to head meetings average 3.4 goals providing plenty of excitement for local fans.
St Pauli averages a league high of 7.14 corners won when playing at the Millerntor.
Best corner production at home with a 7.14 average per match.
High spectacular style with 86 percent of matches ending over 1.5 goals.
Dangerous in the final third with an average of 11.86 fouls won.
Efficient attacking movement with 4.86 shots on target per home game.
- St Pauli's Weaknesses
Weakest home defense in the league conceding 2.14 goals per match.
Poor home efficiency with only 1.0 points per game at Millerntor.
Struggling for overall form sitting at the bottom of the table.
League Position
14
+ Hamburger 's Strengths
Aggressive playing style with 3.13 average cards received per match.
Controls away games by forcing opponents into 12.75 fouls per match.
Consistently creates chances with an average of 12.13 shots away.
Solid discipline away from home with only 2.0 cards against.
- Hamburger 's Weaknesses
Weakest away attack in the league scoring only 0.5 goals.
Poor away form with a league low 0.25 points per game.
Match Preview
Alexander Blessin faces a mountainous task this week. His St Pauli squad showed heart during the 3.2 defeat in Dortmund; goals from Sands and Jones were impressive. However; the late penalty was a crushing blow. They need to tighten up a defense that concedes 2.14 goals at home.
The absence of Elias Nemeth and Hountondji leaves the backline exposed. Blessin might rely on Dzwigala and Wahl to steady the ship; but the rotation options are limited. They must focus on second balls and capitalize on their high corner count to trouble the visitors this Friday.
Still; the Millerntor crowd offers a lifeline. The fans are known for their passionate support and could tilt the momentum. St Pauli already beat their rivals 2.0 earlier this season; so the belief is there. It is just about maintaining concentration for the full ninety minutes.
Hamburger SV arrives with their own demons. They are currently 14th; just one point above the danger zone. The goal drought away from home is staggering; averaging only 0.5 goals per match. Polzin needs to find a way to unlock defenses when playing outside the Volksparkstadion.
Merlin Polzin's 3.4.3 system has struggled for precision lately. The 0.0 draw against Gladbach felt like a defeat given the missed opportunities. With Baldé injured; the pressure falls on Glatzel and Dompé to find the net. They need to improve their 0.25 points per game away record.
Historical trends suggest plenty of drama here. These teams average 3.4 goals in recent meetings; so do not expect a boring stalemate. Both managers are under pressure to secure survival. In this sense; finding the right Bundesliga Predictions might depend on how well Polzin reorganizes his frontline.
St. Pauli coach Alexander Blessin faces crucial personnel decisions ahead of the high-stakes Hamburg derby against HSV. With both rivals struggling near the bottom of the Bundesliga table, veteran defender Hauke Wahl emphasizes the need for increased presence and leadership. While Blessin prioritizes defensive stability, Wahl believes the team must "ignite something" to secure vital points and shift the momentum after a difficult start to 2025.
A. Pyrka, J. Sands, E. Smith, L. Ritzka J. C. Fujita, M. P. Lage
FW
M. Kaars
OUT
D. Sinani(OUT),
D. Nemeth(OUT),
C. Metcalfe(OUT),
S. E. Spari(OUT),
A. Hountondji(OUT),
J. Irvine(OUT),
Hamburger SV (3-4-3)
GK
D. H. Fernandes
DF
D. Elfadli, L. Vušković, J. Torunarigha
MF
B. Jatta, F. Vieira, N. Remberg, M. Muheim
FW
R. Y. Königsdörffer, D. Downs, J. Dompé
OUT
Y. Poulsen(OUT),
F. Dickes(OUT),
A. Soumahoro(OUT),
E. Sahiti(OUT),
A. S. Lokonga(OUT),
W. Omari(OUT),
Referee
Tobias Welz
Prediction
Over 1.5 Goals
Looking at the numbers; this bet feels very secure for a Friday night derby. St Pauli has seen over 1.5 goals in 86 percent of their home matches this season. Their defense is currently the worst in the league at home; conceding an average of 2.14 goals. On the other side; Hamburger SV concedes 2.25 goals per away match. These defensive statistics suggest that neither team can keep a clean sheet. When you combine their poor backlines with the fact that head to head meetings average 3.4 goals; the likelihood of at least two goals is extremely high. The historical trend shows that four of the last five derbies comfortably cleared this line. Even with Hamburger's poor away scoring; St Pauli's vulnerability should allow for opportunities. Both sides are desperate for points; which often leads to open games after the first goal is scored. It is a statistically backed choice for any bettor.
Over 3.5 Cards
Discipline is likely to be a major issue in this high stakes encounter. St Pauli averages 2.29 cards received per home match; while their opponents usually pick up around 3.00. This brings the total match average to over 5 cards. Hamburger SV is also aggressive away from home; receiving an average of 3.13 cards per game. These statistics clearly show that both teams are willing to commit tactical fouls to stop transitions. The referee will likely be busy; as the average cards per match for both teams combined sits well above the 3.5 line. St Pauli draws 11.86 fouls per match at home; while Hamburger draws 12.75 away. This high frequency of fouls inevitably leads to bookings; especially when the game gets tight in the final thirty minutes. Betting on cards is a smart play given the aggressive nature of both squads and their statistical history this season.
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FAQ – St Pauli vs Hamburger Prediction
Who will win between St Pauli and Hamburger?
The match is very balanced with St Pauli priced at 2.5 and Hamburger at 2.9. A draw is a strong possibility given their current struggles.
Where can I watch The St Pauli vs Hamburger live?
The St Pauli vs Hamburger Bundesliga match will be broadcast live on BBC Sport and Sky Sports Bundesliga 1.
What time does St Pauli vs Hamburger start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19:30(GMT) on Friday, January 23, 2026.
Are there many injuries for this match?
Yes; St Pauli is missing Nemeth and Hountondji; while Hamburger will be without Baldé and potentially Soumahoro.
Alexandru Florin is a football betting expert, providing tips and accumulator predictions for xpertstats.com since 2022. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, he delivers well-researched insights and reliable advice for bettors aiming for long-term profit.
