Pape Thiaw has his Senegal side humming at just the right frequency. After navigating a tricky group, they made short work of Sudan and then ground out a tough 1-0 win over Mali in the quarterfinals. It wasn’t always pretty against Mali, but Thiaw’s men showed the grit of champions. They are incredibly tough to break down, conceding only twice in their last five games. Still, the coach knows they can’t afford to waste chances like they did in the previous round. With Sadio Mane pulling the strings and players like Iliman Ndiaye finding form, they look like the team to beat. It’s hard to say how this will end, but Senegal’s balance between a rock-solid defense and a creative attack makes them slight favorites in many people’s eyes.

That said, Egypt is never a team you can count out, especially with a certain Mohamed Salah in the side. The Pharaohs haven’t exactly been “gliding” through the tournament, often relying on grit and late drama. They needed a last-gasp winner against Zimbabwe and a penalty to get past South Africa. Even their quarterfinal against Cote d’Ivoire was a rollercoaster, nearly blowing a 3-1 lead before finishing 3-2. Coach Hossam Hassan has praised his team’s maturity, but they’ve looked a bit shaky at the back lately. Losing defender Mohamed Hamdi to injury is a blow, and Ahmed Fatouh will need to be much sharper after that unfortunate own goal last time out. Even so, Winning Soccer Stats suggest that Egypt’s ability to find a way to win, even when playing poorly, is a trait that defines their AFCON history.

The individual battle between former Liverpool teammates Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah adds a beautiful layer of drama to this semifinal. Mane has been the ultimate provider for Senegal, racking up three assists so far, while Salah is hunting for the Golden Boot and personal records. But it’s not just a two-man show. Senegal has shown they have threats all over the pitch, with Pape Gueye proving to be a powerhouse in the middle of the park. Egypt will likely look to Omar Marmoush to provide that extra spark alongside Salah to test a Senegalese defense that hasn’t been truly rattled yet. Can the Egyptian attack finally crack the code? It is a big ask, but Salah on a mission is a scary prospect for any defender.

Looking at the recent head-to-head, Senegal definitely has the psychological edge. They’ve won four of the last five meetings, including that heartbreaking World Cup playoff and the 2021 AFCON final. Egypt has struggled to score against the Lions, managing only one goal across those five games. That’s a stat that must haunt Hossam Hassan’s thoughts. However, records are meant to be broken, and the Pharaohs are the most successful team in AFCON history for a reason. They know how to handle the pressure of a semifinal. Whether they can overcome their defensive lapses against such a clinical Senegal side remains the big question. It feels like a cagey affair, but with the talent on display, a moment of magic could change everything in an instant.