Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips
Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips for the return leg at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. This Uefa Champions League Predictions preview covers the game on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, starting at 20:00 GMT. The match is available live on Discovery+ for fans worldwide.
Los Blancos enter this match with a 1-0 lead but are reeling from a 2-1 loss against Osasuna. With a massive list of injuries, including Mbappé being ruled out, Alvaro Arbeloa faces a huge tactical challenge. Benfica will look to exploit this uncertainty in Madrid.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Key Facts and Stats
Real Madrid has won five of their last six games when facing Portuguese league opponents.
Kylian Mbappé is officially out for the second leg due to a persistent knee injury.
Benfica has failed to record a victory in their last nine knockout stage matches recently.
Real Madrid comes into this European night following a tough 2-1 defeat against Osasuna lately.
The Eagles have historically only won two of fourteen matches away against clubs from Spain.
Gianluca Prestianni is suspended by UEFA while the investigation into the racial incident remains active.
Potent home attack averaging 2.5 goals scored per match this season.
Dominant in the air and creative with 8.75 corners won per game.
High offensive pressure resulting in a massive 24.25 shots per home match.
Creative dominance drawing an average of 15.0 fouls from their opponents.
- Real Madrid's Weaknesses
Defensive lapses resulting in 75% of home matches ending with both teams scoring.
Massive void in midfield with Jude Bellingham out due to a hamstring injury.
Missing star striker Kylian Mbappé after his recent knee injury was confirmed.
+ Benfica's Strengths
Solid defensive shape conceding only 1.0 goals per away match this season.
Discipline on the pitch with a low average of 1.5 cards received.
Effective at winning fouls in key areas with 13.83 fouls won away.
High average points per game on the road keeping them in top three.
- Benfica's Weaknesses
Extremely weak attacking output with only 0.67 goals scored per away game.
Lack of clinical finishing averaging just 3.5 shots on target per match.
Offensive struggles reflected in a poor 0% of away matches seeing BTTS.
Match Preview
Arbeloa is in a tough spot. Without Mbappé, who has been involved in 14 goals this season, the attack feels blunt. Vinícius Júnior, who scored the 1-0 winner in Lisbon, will need to step up even more. It is a massive test for the young coach.
Arda Güler creates 25 chances this season, a record for his age. Since he turns 21 on matchday, he might produce some magic. Still, the loss to Osasuna showed a lack of defensive focus. They must be better to avoid an early European exit on Wednesday.
The injury list is staggering. Jude Bellingham and Éder Militão are long-term absentees, while Rodrygo is suspended. If Dean Huijsen stays out, the backline looks very thin. They need to find a way to stay organized against the physical threat that Benfica brings to Madrid.
José Mourinho watches from the stands after his red card in the first leg. His side sits third in Portugal and remains unbeaten in their domestic league. Even so, the 1-0 deficit is a huge mountain to climb given their poor history in Spanish away games.
Vangelis Pavlidis has 28 goals this term and is the main threat. Richard Rios might start in midfield to provide more stability. They handled AFS with a 3-0 win recently, but the atmosphere at the Bernabéu is a different beast entirely for this squad.
Gianluca Prestianni is missing through suspension which limits their options out wide. Still, Benfica have overcome home losses before, like against Dinamo Bucuresti years ago. It will take a perfect performance to advance. We hope our Uefa Champions League Predictions help you find the winning edge.
Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappé has been ruled out of the crucial Champions League play-off return leg against Benfica due to a persistent left knee injury. Despite coach Alvaro Arbeloa’s initial optimism regarding the forward's availability, recent medical examinations confirmed that the Frenchman requires immediate rest. With the Merengues holding a narrow 1-0 lead, the captain’s absence forces a tactical shift as he begins a necessary recovery protocol.
T. Alexander-Arnold, R. Asencio, A. Rüdiger, Á. Carreras
MF
F. Valverde, A. Güler, A. Tchouaméni, E. Camavinga
FW
G. García, V. Jr.
OUT
E. Militão(OUT),
Rodrygo(SUSP),
D. Huijsen(OUT),
D. Ceballos(OUT),
J. Bellingham(OUT),
K. Mbappé(OUT)
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
José Mourinho
GK
A. Trubin
DF
A. Dedić, T. Araújo, N. Otamendi, S. Dahl
MF
E. Barrenechea, F. Aursnes S. Cabral, R. Silva, A. Schjelderup
FW
V. Pavlidis
OUT
J. Veloso(OUT),
S. Soares(OUT),
G. Prestianni(SUSP)
Referee
Slavko VINČIĆ
Prediction
Over 4.5 Cards @1.54
The racial allegations from the first leg have created a toxic atmosphere. Vinícius Júnior was the target and emotions will run high in Madrid. Benfica players like Leandro Barreiro average 2.23 fouls per 90 minutes. With a spot in the next round on the line, players will likely resort to tactical fouls to stop counter attacks in this massive European clash.
The referee will have a difficult job keeping control. First leg tensions often boil over in the return match. Real Madrid averages 2.5 cards per home game while Benfica sees 2.17 cards on the road. Given Mourinho’s aggressive style and the pressure of a 1-0 aggregate score, we expect a very physical battle with at least 5 bookings throughout the ninety minutes.
Watch Real Madrid vs Benfica Last Match Highlights
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FAQ – Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction
Is Kylian Mbappé playing against Benfica?
No, the French forward has been ruled out due to a persistent left knee injury that requires immediate rest and treatment.
Where can I watch Real Madrid vs Benfica live?
The Real Madrid vs Benfica Champions League match will be broadcast live on Discovery+ and Paramount+.
What time does Real Madrid vs Benfica start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Why is José Mourinho not on the touchline?
The Benfica head coach is serving a suspension after being sent off during the first leg in Lisbon last week.
Who scored the goal in the first leg?
Vinícius Júnior scored the only goal of the first leg in the 50th minute to give Madrid a 1-0 lead.
Alexandru Florin is a football betting expert, providing tips and accumulator predictions for xpertstats.com since 2022. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, he delivers well-researched insights and reliable advice for bettors aiming for long-term profit.
