Inter Milan comes into this fixture with an incredible home record, having won 18 of their last 19 top flight meetings against Lecce in Milan. Cristian Chivu has turned the San Siro into a fortress where they average 7.7 corners won per game and a staggering 2.6 goals scored. While the defense has shown a few cracks recently, allowing 0.8 goals on average at home, their offensive output is simply unmatched. Still, the squad might look a bit different on Wednesday as injuries to Hakan Calhanoglu and Denzel Dumfries force some rotation. Can the depth of this squad handle the pressure? It is hard to say how this will end, but the stats certainly lean toward a dominant home performance.

The Nerazzurri’s attacking philosophy is built on volume and pressure, evidenced by their 10.1 average corners per match. Marcus Thuram has been a central figure in this system, recording 14 shots on target so far this season. Even though they failed to beat Napoli last time out, they have won seven of their last eight meetings against Lecce. That is a massive psychological advantage. Chivu’s men know that a slip up here could let AC Milan or Napoli back into the title hunt. That’s a bold move for any opponent to try and stop them right now, but maybe the right tactical setup from the visitors could cause some frustration. Even so, Inter’s firepower usually finds a way through.

Lecce travels to Milan in a bit of a crisis, sitting just three points above the relegation zone. Their discipline has been a major issue lately, especially after seeing Lameck Banda and Kialonda Gaspar sent off in their recent 2-1 loss to Parma. Losing key players to suspension before facing the league leaders is a nightmare scenario for Eusebio Di Francesco. On the road, the Salentini average only 0.75 goals scored per match, which is a worrying statistic when facing a team like Inter. They do win a decent number of corners away from home, averaging 4.88, but converting those into actual goals has been the real struggle for them this season.

Despite the uphill battle, Lecce has shown they can be stubborn, recently holding Juventus to a draw in Turin. They commit about 12.63 fouls per game on their travels, trying to disrupt the rhythm of superior technical teams. Will that be enough to stop free serie a predictions favorites Inter? Probably not if they keep conceding two goals per match as they have in five of their last six encounters with the Nerazzurri. With the worst attacking record in the league, the visitors will likely sit deep and pray for a counter-attack. It is a risky strategy, but at the San Siro, they might not have much of a choice. Still, football always has room for a surprise, however unlikely it seems here.