Derby vs Leeds Prediction FA Cup 11.01.2026
Derby vs Leeds Prediction FA Cup
Derby vs Leeds Prediction and Betting Tips for the FA Cup third round, scheduled for Sunday, January 11, 2026, at 12:00 GMT. The match will be broadcast live on Discovery+ and TNT Sports 2. This historic clash takes place at Pride Park, where the Rams are desperate to prove they can still hang with the big boys. If you are looking for the best edge, you can check out Soccer Stats for more deep dives into the numbers. It is a classic cup tie between two sides with massive fanbases but very different recent trajectories.
- Derby County currently occupies 13th place in the Championship after a very inconsistent season start.
- The Rams have struggled significantly at Pride Park, winning only once in their last six home matches.
- Leeds United sits 16th in the Premier League, eight points clear of the current relegation zone.
- The visitors have won the last three head to head meetings against Derby in all competitions.
- Derby will be without top scorer Carlton Morris and key midfielder David Ozoh due to injuries.
- Leeds scored three goals against Newcastle midweek but conceded two late goals in a dramatic defeat.
John Eustace has done a decent job steadying the ship at Derby after a nightmare start to the campaign. Still, the Rams seem to be suffering from a strange “home phobia” lately. It is wild to think they have actually been more dangerous on the road than in their own backyard. Losing Carlton Morris to a knee injury is a massive blow that really hurts their clinical edge upfront. Can Rhian Brewster step up against his former top flight peers? It is hard to say how this will end, but the soccer stats suggest Derby needs a miracle to keep a clean sheet here.
That said, Derby’s defensive record at home has been a bit of a rollercoaster. They have a goal difference of zero after 26 games, which tells you everything about their lack of identity right now. They score some, they let in some, and they often end up right back where they started. Facing a Leeds side that just gave Newcastle a massive scare is a daunting task. Even so, the FA Cup is built on these kinds of mismatches. If the Rams can frustrate Leeds early on, the Pride Park crowd might just become the twelfth man they so desperately need.
Leeds United arrives with a bit of a bruised ego after that 4-3 loss at St James Park. To be leading in the 91st minute and still lose is the kind of thing that keeps managers awake at night. Daniel Farke has certainly brought an attacking flair back to Elland Road, but their away form remains a giant question mark. With only one win on the road all season, they aren’t exactly travel experts. That’s a bold move to rely so heavily on home points, but for a cup game, they might just view this as a neutral ground opportunity to reset their season.
The team news for the Peacocks is mostly positive, with Joe Rodon and Brenden Aaronson likely to feature despite some midweek knocks. They will miss Daniel James, but they have enough depth in the squad to rotate and still look like a Premier League outfit. Leeds have a knack for beating Derby, having won their last three encounters, including a tight 1-0 win at Pride Park last term. It feels like Leeds has the upper hand, but in the FA Cup, nothing is ever truly guaranteed until the final whistle blows. Still, the quality gap should be the deciding factor.
Leeds United manager Daniel Farke has prioritized Premier League survival ahead of Sunday's FA Cup clash against Derby County. While honoring the legacy of the late Terry Yorath, Farke confirmed Karl Darlow will start in goal. Despite back concerns for Sam Byram and injury risks regarding Jayden Bogle, the boss remains committed to the competition's tradition while carefully managing his squad after a grueling festive period.
| GK | Widell Zetterstrom |
| DF | Langas, Sanderson, Clarke |
| MF | Ward, Thompson, Clark, Elder |
| FW | Brereton Diaz, Agyemang, Brewster |
| OUT |
M. Johnston(OUT),
O. Beck(OUT),
C. Morris(OUT),
D. Ozoh(OUT)
|
| GK | Darlow |
| DF | Rodon, Bornauw, Struijk |
| MF | Justin, Tanaka, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson |
| FW | Okafor, Nmecha |
| OUT |
S. Byram(QUES),
J. Bogle(QUES),
D. James(OUT)
|
Leeds United may have struggled on the road this season, but the gap in pure technical quality between the Premier League and the Championship is often the deciding factor in the FA Cup. Daniel Farke has his side playing an expansive, attacking brand of football that recently saw them put four past Crystal Palace and three past Chelsea. While the heartbreaking late loss to Newcastle showed some defensive lapses, the offensive output from players like Okafor and Nmecha is significantly higher than what Derby faces weekly. Derby has been surprisingly poor at Pride Park lately, winning just once in their last six home games. Given Leeds have beaten the Rams in their last three meetings, the psychological edge sits firmly with the visitors. Expect Leeds to control possession and eventually break down a Derby defense that has already conceded 35 goals this term.
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FAQ – Derby vs Leeds Prediction
Who is the favorite to win between Derby and Leeds?
Leeds United enters as the favorite due to their Premier League status and strong recent scoring record, despite their struggles on the road.
Where can I watch Derby vs Leeds live?
The Derby vs Leeds FA Cup match will be broadcast live on Discovery+ and TNT Sports 2.
What time does Derby vs Leeds start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12:00 (GMT) on Sunday, January 11, 2026.
Are there any major injuries for Derby County?
Yes, Derby will be missing their top scorer Carlton Morris and midfielder David Ozoh, which could impact their attacking threat.
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Alexandru Florin is a football betting expert, providing tips and accumulator predictions for xpertstats.com since 2022. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, he delivers well-researched insights and reliable advice for bettors aiming for long-term profit.
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