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Norway vs Senegal Prediction, Team News, Lineups, Stats 23.06.2026

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Last updated: 21/06/2026 23:00
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Norway vs Senegal Prediction, Team News, Lineups, Stats 23.06.2026

Norway vs Senegal Prediction and Betting Tips opens Group I’s second round on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, at 01:00 GMT, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Fox and Peacock carry the match in the USA, with Wilton Pereira Sampaio refereeing. Our Today's World Cup Predictions lean cautious.

Norway arrive after a 4-1 win over Iraq, the kind of punchy return that makes people sit up. Senegal lost 3-1 to France, but Ibrahim Mbaye’s late goal mattered emotionally. Can the Lions steady themselves before Group I gets away from them?

Norway vs Senegal Prediction

1X & Over 1.5 Goals
Odds: 1.75 XpertStats Model Probability: 62%

The pick is built around Norway’s sharper tournament position rather than blind optimism. Solbakken’s side looked direct, confident, and dangerous between the lines in the opener, while Senegal still carried enough attacking threat to make a shutout feel risky. At odds of 1.75, the implied probability is 57.1%, but the team context pushes our model higher. 1X & Over 1.5 Goals also respects the match rhythm. Norway do not need chaos, just pressure, territory, and Haaland’s finishing gravity. Senegal, meanwhile, cannot sit too deep after losing their first group match. That creates a game state where the hosts avoid defeat, but the total still has room to move beyond one goal.

Norway vs Senegal Correct Score

Norway
2 - 1
Senegal

The predicted home win fits the available evidence better than a runaway call. Norway have the sharper forward reference point, and their opener suggested they can turn territorial spells into goals quickly. Still, Senegal’s wide pace and late response against France argue against writing them off. This feels like a game where the first Norwegian goal changes the tempo, not the whole contest. Senegal’s selection looks built to stretch the pitch, especially if Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, and Ibrahim Mbaye are used to attack spaces behind full-backs. The problem is balance. Against a settled Norway block, they may need to commit bodies forward earlier than ideal. That can produce their moment, but it also leaves the kind of gaps Haaland and Ødegaard usually punish.

Norway vs Senegal Stats

  • Norway have won each of their last 11 competitive matches, scoring 50 and conceding seven overall.
  • Haaland has scored in 17 of 20 Norway internationals since the start of 2023.
  • Senegal have conceded in each of their last 12 World Cup matches since 2002.
  • Ibrahim Mbaye became Africa's youngest World Cup scorer aged 18 years and 143 days.
  • Ødegaard completed all 16 final-third passes and misplaced just one in Norway’s opener too.
  • Senegal beat Norway 2-1 in their only previous meeting, a 2006 friendly between the sides.

Norway vs Senegal Match Preview

Norway enter this match with a clean Group I picture: win, and the knockout conversation becomes almost immediate. Their first outing had the feel of a team finally released from waiting. The ball moved quickly, the front pair looked connected, and the midfield passed with conviction.

Senegal arrive under different pressure. The France defeat was not a humiliation, but it did expose spaces between the midfield and back line. Thiaw’s side cannot simply chase the game from minute one, yet sitting too deep against Haaland is hardly a comforting plan either.

Tactically, this could become a fascinating push and pull. Norway’s 4-4-2 gives them clear reference points, especially when Ødegaard drifts inside to feed early passes. Senegal’s 4-3-3 should stretch the width, but their wide players must also protect the full-backs.

The match rhythm may start cagey, then loosen after the opening goal. Norway have enough structure to slow transitions, while Senegal carry enough individual quality to force nervous moments. Corners and cards could rise if the Lions chase territory late and the Vikings defend in numbers.

That is why the balance leans toward the Scandinavians, but not without a scratch or two. Solbakken’s team look more settled and more ruthless right now. Senegal’s urgency, however, keeps the game alive, and that usually matters in group-stage betting.

Norway vs Senegal TEAM STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
Norway Logo
Senegal Logo
Norway League Position
1st in Group I

+ Norway's Strengths

  • Top of Group I after the opener, helped by a better goal difference than France.
  • Won every World Cup qualifying match before carrying that ruthlessness into the finals.
  • Haaland is on a long scoring sequence and gives the attack elite penalty-box gravity.
  • Ødegaard’s line-breaking passing against Iraq gives Norway reliable service between the lines.

- Norway's Weaknesses

  • Only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 matches across all tournaments.
  • Won only 1 of their final 4 warm-up friendlies before the finals.
  • Full-back fitness needed monitoring after the Iraq match, even if both recovered.
Senegal League Position
3rd in Group I

+ Senegal's Strengths

  • Opta still gives them a 56.7% chance of reaching the next round.
  • Mbaye’s France goal adds a fast, fearless option in the final third.
  • Their 2006 win over Norway gives them a positive head-to-head memory.
  • Mane, Jackson, and Sarr provide pace and depth across the front line.

- Senegal's Weaknesses

  • Their clean-sheet drought at World Cups remains a major defensive concern.
  • Lost each of their last 3 World Cup matches against European opponents.
  • Risk a fourth straight winless match in all competitions if they fail again.

Norway vs Senegal Team News

Solbakken is expected to stay close to his 4-4-2 structure, with a full squad available after David Moller Wolfe and Julian Ryerson recovered from concerns. Haaland remains the obvious focal point, and his unusual shot-heavy opener tells you how directly Norway want to use him.

Thiaw also has no reported absences, so Senegal’s selection debate sits mainly in attack. Mbaye’s goal against France puts him in the conversation, though Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, and Ismaila Sarr still offer a more experienced front line for a 4-3-3 shape.

Midfield control may decide selection more than reputation. Norway will likely trust Ødegaard, who produced half of their line-breaking passes against Iraq, to set the tempo. Senegal need runners around the striker without leaving the centre exposed. It is a small tactical puzzle, and not a boring one.

Senegal’s 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign has been thrown off balance by serious off-field issues, with reports citing unpaid player bonuses, poor hotel conditions, inadequate meals, and uncertainty around head coach Pape Thiaw’s contract and salary. The mounting chaos risks damaging team morale and focus after their opening defeat to France, with crucial matches against Norway and Iraq still to come.

Norway vs Senegal Lineups

Here are the predicted lineups for Norway vs Senegal, including formations, managers, injured players and doubtful players.
Norway (4-4-2)
Ståle Solbakken
GK Ø. Nyland
DF J. Ryerson, K. Ajer, T. Heggem, D. M. Wolfe
MF M. Ødegaard, S. Berge, F. Aursnes, A. Nusa
FW A. Sørloth, E. Haaland
OUT
Senegal (4-3-3)
Pape Thiaw
GK E. Mendy
DF K. Diatta, K. Koulibaly, M. Niakhaté, E. H. M. Diouf
MF L. Camara, I. Gueye, P. Gueye
FW I. Mbaye, N. Jackson, S. Mané
OUT
Referee
Wilton Pereira Sampaio

XpertStats is designed for readers who want more than basic match previews. The platform combines predictive probabilities, xG, goal trends, corner data, discipline stats, and team performance rankings in one data-rich catalog. Start exploring the tools today and see how Shots on Target Soccer analysis can support sharper, evidence-based football research before every fixture.

Norway vs Senegal FAQ

Who will win between Norway and Senegal?

Norway look slightly better placed because of their form, structure, and attacking edge, but Senegal have enough pace to make this uncomfortable.

What is the best Norway vs Senegal prediction?

The best betting angle is 1X & Over 1.5 Goals, as it protects against a Senegal reaction while still backing a lively match.

What correct score is predicted for Norway vs Senegal?

The correct score prediction is Norway 2-1 Senegal, with the hosts expected to edge a competitive Group I contest.

What time does Norway vs Senegal start?

Kick-off is scheduled for 01:00 GMT on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.

Why can Senegal cause problems for Norway?

Senegal have direct runners, experienced forwards, and a young spark in Ibrahim Mbaye, so Norway cannot treat this as routine.

Which players could decide Norway vs Senegal?

Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard are central for Norway, while Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, and Ibrahim Mbaye carry Senegal’s threat.

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