Burnley vs Leeds Prediction and Betting Tips for this Premier League clash at Turf Moor, set for Saturday afternoon. Both sides know each other too well after last season’s Championship race, where Leeds edged Burnley to the title. In this piece, you’ll find insights powered by Stats English Premier League from XpertStats.

• Burnley have collected all their Premier League points this season at home.
• Leeds have scored in five of their seven league matches so far.
• Both sides average just 2.33 cards per game combined – discipline might decide it.
• Burnley have won only one of their last six home meetings with Leeds.

Burnley’s return to top-flight life hasn’t exactly gone to script. Scott Parker’s side sit 18th after seven games, with all four of their points coming at home. They’ve scored just once per match on average and conceded nearly twice that (0.67 goals per game allowed). That said, Turf Moor has offered glimpses of resistance. Their 1-0 win over Sunderland back in August feels like forever ago, but Parker insists belief hasn’t vanished. “We know what we are capable of,” he said earlier this week. Still, the numbers are tough to ignore, 35% average possession, and no clean sheets in five games. Can he really turn things around?

Leeds, meanwhile, arrive with a steadier pulse. Daniel Farke’s men have twice as many points as Burnley and sit four places higher. Yet their numbers are a mixed bag. Leeds score around one goal per game but concede more than two on average, with 67% of their matches featuring over 2.5 goals. It’s a rollercoaster ride every week. Farke himself called this “a difficult period” and he’s right. Three of their next four games are away, and Turf Moor is never friendly ground. Even so, Leeds did enough against Wolves and Tottenham to show they can hurt anyone in transition.

From a tactical view, Burnley will look to frustrate and counter. Their corners and fouls tell a story, averaging 10 corners and 18 fouls per match, they fight for every yard. Leeds, in contrast, are less direct but more patient in buildup, averaging fewer corners (4.67 per game) but more overall fouls (24.67). It’s physical, yes, but not reckless. Both teams average just 2.33 cards per game, meaning aggression rarely crosses the line. That’s a bold balance in a league where tempers often flare.

Ultimately, this one feels tight. Burnley’s home form collides with Leeds’ road energy in what could be a gritty 90 minutes. Neither side has been prolific, and both managers will be desperate not to lose. Expect more heart than elegance here. The numbers back a low-card affair and a narrow margin either way. For more insights across the season, explore our latest updates on Stats English Premier League coverage at XpertStats.