Metz vs Marseille Prediction Ligue 1 04.10.2025
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Metz vs Marseille Prediction Ligue 1
Metz vs Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips for this Saturday’s Ligue 1 showdown at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz are still waiting for their first victory of the season, while Marseille arrive in third place with momentum firmly on their side. In this article, you’ll find expert insights alongside Ligue 1 Predictions from XpertStats tipsters.
- Metz remain the only winless side in Ligue 1 after six rounds
- Marseille have strung together three straight victories in all competitions
- Stade Saint-Symphorien has not seen a home win against OM since 2017
- Both sides average over 24 fouls per match, hinting at a physical battle
Six games in, Metz manager Stephane Le Mignan hasn’t found the right formula yet. Last weekend’s 0-0 draw with Le Havre summed up their struggles: not a single shot on target. Can they finally break the cycle? History isn’t on their side. Metz haven’t beaten OM at home since 2017, and their expected goals tally is among the lowest in the division. Still, the Grenats have shown resilience at home, conceding just two of their 13 goals there so far. That may give them a glimmer of belief.
Defensive gaps remain Metz’s Achilles heel. With the highest expected goals against in Ligue 1 (12.6), their backline often looks stretched. Even so, the return of Sadibou Sane from suspension could add steel in midfield. Jonathan Fischer earned a clean sheet last time out, but he’ll need another huge performance if Metz want to stop OM’s attack. The home crowd will be restless. Five games without a win at Stade Saint-Symphorien feels like a weight pressing down on them.
Marseille, on the other hand, look like a team coming alive. Roberto De Zerbi’s men were stung by that controversial Champions League defeat to Real Madrid, but since then? Three wins on the bounce, six goals scored, and just one conceded. Aubameyang remains the man for big moments, equalising against Strasbourg before Michael Murillo struck the winner. That blend of star power and grit is exactly what OM fans want to see. A win here would also mark back-to-back away victories in Ligue 1, a milestone they haven’t reached yet in 2025.
Even so, Marseille’s away form isn’t bulletproof. Two defeats in three away trips this season show vulnerability, especially against stubborn opposition. They’ve also conceded most of their league goals away from home. Will Metz exploit that? Hard to say. But with OM unbeaten in their last nine league clashes with Metz, the weight of history and form is heavy. Expect a gritty encounter with plenty of fouls, as both teams average more than 24 per match. That’s one reason why our Ligue 1 Predictions lean towards a scrappy, hard-fought contest.
Marseille head to Metz on Saturday, October 4, aiming to extend their strong run before the international break. After key victories over PSG, Strasbourg, and Ajax, OM sit third in Ligue 1 with 12 points. Facing bottom-placed Metz, still without a win, Roberto De Zerbi’s men will try to secure a fifth triumph this season. Kick-off is set for 17:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, with live coverage on BeIN Sports 1 (La Provence).
The foul stats practically tell their own story. Metz average 14 fouls committed per match and win around 12, putting their games at a hefty 26 fouls on average. Marseille’s numbers are similar, with 12.33 fouls committed and the same amount won, giving them an average of 24.66 fouls per game. When these sides clash, it’s safe to expect a scrappy midfield battle. Metz will try to break Marseille’s rhythm with aggressive pressing and tactical fouls, especially since their attack isn’t clicking. Marseille, meanwhile, thrive on intensity under Roberto De Zerbi, and their willingness to fight for every duel often leads to stoppages. Considering both averages, the likelihood of surpassing 22.5 fouls is strong. Add in Metz’s desperation to secure their first win and Marseille’s need to maintain momentum, and you have a recipe for a tense, physical match with plenty of whistles.
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