Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction and Betting Tips for the Champions League match on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, at 20:00 GMT. The game is held at St. James' Park and broadcast on Amazon Prime. It is an important night for these Uefa Champions League Predictions as the hosts lead 6-1.
Eddie Howe's men delivered a masterclass in Azerbaijan last week to all but secure their progress. Anthony Gordon scored four times, making him the star of the show. Qarabag had no answers for the English side's pace and precision, trailing heavily as they arrive in the United Kingdom.
Newcastle vs Qarabag Key Facts and Stats
Anthony Gordon made history last week by scoring four goals in a single European knockout match.
Newcastle has scored in 11 consecutive European fixtures, averaging more than two goals per game lately.
Qarabag has struggled on English soil, losing all five previous visits by a heavy aggregate score.
Captain Bruno Guimaraes is out with a hamstring injury, leaving a void in the midfield area.
The visitors have conceded 27 goals this season, nearly setting a new record for defensive fragility.
Eddie Howe might rotate his squad heavily given the massive five goal advantage from the start.
Excellent home defense conceding only 0.5 goals per match
High efficiency with 6.0 shots on target per match
Disciplined play with low cards received at 1.25 average
- Newcastle's Weaknesses
Missing key playmaker Bruno Guimaraes due to injury
Schar and Livramento sidelined in defensive positions
Low home corner count winning only 5.75 per match
+ Qarabag's Strengths
Spectacular style with 57% of away games over 3.5 goals
Active offensive pressure winning 3.71 corners away
High average of fouls won at 15.14 per match
Camilo Duran in form with 4 European goals scored
- Qarabag's Weaknesses
Leaky away defense conceding 2.0 goals per match
Poor historical record on English soil recently
Match Preview
Newcastle is enjoying a productive European run, and another win would set a new club record. They currently boast 5 wins from 9 matches this season. Despite a recent loss to Manchester City, the confidence in the camp remains high as they approach this decisive playoff second leg.
The injury list is quite long for the Magpies right now. Malick Thiaw is suspended after getting a yellow card in Baku. Also, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento are completely out. This might force Howe to use some youngsters to fill the gaps in the defensive line.
Anthony Gordon is clearly the man to watch after his 4 goal haul. He currently averages 1.43 goals per 90 minutes. With Wissa and Botman still doubtful, Gordon will need to maintain his high intensity to ensure there are no late surprises at St. James' Park.
Qarabag faces a massive 2,529 mile journey to the northeast of England this week. They even held their pre match press conference in Baku to save time. Gurban Gurbanov knows the task is nearly impossible, but they are playing for pride and their coefficient ranking now.
The Azerbaijani champions have been spectacular to watch, with 57% of their away games going over 3.5 goals. Camilo Duran is their main threat up front, having scored 4 times in the competition. They will try to exploit any defensive lapses from a rotated Newcastle side.
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev is still sidelined, which hurts the visitors' chances of keeping a clean sheet. It is hard to imagine a comeback, but they want to leave a good impression. Many fans follow these Uefa Champions League Predictions to see if the underdogs can score.
Qarabag has announced a surprising change in preparations ahead of their Champions League play-off second leg against Newcastle United. Despite trailing 6-1, manager Gurban Gurbanov will hold his pre-match press conference and open training in Baku instead of at St James’ Park. This unusual decision suggests the Azerbaijani side aims to minimize their time on Tyneside, flying to England only shortly before the Tuesday night kickoff.
S. Tonali, J. Willock A. Elanga, N. Woltemade, H. Barnes
FW
W. Osula
OUT
V. Livramento(OUT),
M. Thiaw(OUT),
L. Miley(OUT),
Y. Wissa(OUT),
F. Schär(OUT),
B. Guimarães(OUT),
E. Krafth(OUT),
Qarabağ (4-2-3-1)
Gurban Gurbanov
GK
M. Kochalski
DF
M. Silva, B. Huseynov, K. Medina, E. Cafarquliyev
MF
P. Bicalho, M. Janković L. Andrade, J. Montiel, A. Zoubir
FW
C. Durán
OUT
S. Mahammadaliyev(QUES),
Referee
Davide MASSA
Prediction
Under 20.5 Fouls @1.75
The first leg was a very clean affair, and with the tie essentially decided, neither side needs to play with excessive aggression. Newcastle averages only 10.5 fouls per match at home, while Qarabag is even lower on the road at 9.57. With progress virtually guaranteed, the players will likely prioritize avoiding injuries over making risky or tactical challenges in the middle.
We expect a drop in intensity during this second leg at St. James' Park. The statistical average between these two teams sits at 22.98, but the specific context of a dead rubber often lowers these numbers. Since both managers are looking toward weekend domestic fixtures, the tactical instructions will likely emphasize keeping the ball rather than fighting for it through aggressive physical contact.
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FAQ – Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction
Who is the favorite to win the second leg?
Newcastle United are the overwhelming favorites playing at home, especially after their massive 6-1 victory in the first leg.
Will Anthony Gordon play after his four goals in Baku?
While rotation is possible, Anthony Gordon is in peak form and will likely feature to help secure the result for the Magpies.
Where can I watch Newcastle vs Qarabag live?
The Newcastle vs Qarabag Champions League match will be broadcast live with full broadcast details on Amazon Prime and Paramount+.
What time does the match at St. James' Park start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 (GMT) on Tuesday February 24, 2026.
Are there any major injuries for Newcastle?
Yes, Newcastle will be without Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar, and Tino Livramento, while Malick Thiaw is currently suspended.
Alexandru Florin is a football betting expert, providing tips and accumulator predictions for xpertstats.com since 2022. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, he delivers well-researched insights and reliable advice for bettors aiming for long-term profit.
