The home side finds itself in a strange spot. While they have been doing some heavy lifting in the Europa Conference League, their domestic form has completely fallen off a cliff. It is actually wild to think they haven’t won a league game since the end of October. Still, they showed some life with a 3-1 cup win over Granada recently. Can they finally translate that cup energy into three points on Sunday? It’s hard to say how this will end, but the 0.63 goals scored per home match suggests they aren’t exactly blowing teams away at Vallecas. Defensively, they are equally tight, conceding only 0.63 goals per home game, which usually leads to some pretty cagey football.

Inigo Perez has some selection headaches too. Missing guys like Pathe Ciss to the Africa Cup of Nations is a blow to the midfield rhythm. Even so, having Alvaro Garcia in the final third gives them a puncher’s chance every single time he touches the ball. He has been their shining light in a season where goals have been harder to find than a quiet corner in Madrid. Rayo’s home matches usually average just 1.25 total goals, which tells you everything you need to know about their tactical approach. They keep it tight, maybe a bit too tight sometimes. That’s a bold move for a team only three points above the drop, but maybe the right one to stop the bleeding.

On the other side of the pitch, Mallorca travels to Madrid with a bit of a psychological edge. They have basically owned this fixture lately, winning 16 of the last 28 meetings between these two. However, their away form this season has been, well, let’s call it “challenging.” They have only managed five points from nine trips away from home. Jagoba Arrasate’s men are coming off a frustrating loss to Girona and really need Vedat Muriqi to be at his absolute best. Interestingly, their away games are much more chaotic than Rayo’s home games, averaging 2.67 total goals per match. They score more than Rayo on the road, but they also give up a lot more.

Mallorca will be glad to welcome back Omar Mascarell from international duty, but the loss of Manu Morlanes to injury still stings. It is a bit of a toss up which version of the Pirates we will see. They net about 1.67 goals on average when playing away, which is actually quite impressive for a team in 16th place. That said, they also concede 1.67 on average. It’s that lack of balance that keeps Arrasate awake at night, I’m sure. If they can keep their discipline and feed Muriqi, they might just add to Rayo’s misery. Discover LaLiga Predictions and you’ll see that this match is widely expected to be a battle of nerves rather than a tactical masterclass.