Bayern Munich vs St Pauli Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchweek 12 of the Bundesliga 2025/26 season, scheduled for Saturday, November 29, 2025, at 14:30 GMT. The match will be broadcast live on Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 (Ger) and WOW (Ger) from the Allianz Arena in Munich. In this article, you’ll find Bundesliga Predictions and detailed stats-based insights from XpertStats tipsters.

• Bayern Munich return home after their first defeat of the season.
• St Pauli are on an eight-game losing streak in the Bundesliga.
• Harry Kane has been involved in 26 goals in 11 league games.
• Bayern average 4.33 goals per match, while St Pauli concede 1.4 on average.

Bayern Munich walk into this one still licking their wounds from that 1-3 Champions League loss to Arsenal. It’s rare to see them rattled, but maybe the timing was right to wake them up. Vincent Kompany’s side have dominated the domestic stage, averaging a huge 4.33 goals per game and conceding just 0.5. That’s absurd consistency. Yet, questions linger, can they reset fast enough after midweek fatigue? Harry Kane has been a machine, bagging 23 league goals already, and the Allianz Arena crowd will expect another clinic from their captain.

Still, this isn’t just about Bayern’s firepower. St Pauli arrive wounded and desperate. Eight straight league defeats, five matches without scoring, and a defense leaking 1.4 goals on average. Manager Alexander Blessin insists his team still “believe,” but belief won’t be enough against a side that’s scored in every single Bundesliga game this season. Can they even hold out for 45 minutes? It’s hard to say. Sometimes football writes its own fairy tales, but this one looks grim for the visitors.

From a tactical point of view, Bayern’s relentless pressing and wide overloads should stretch St Pauli’s back three until it snaps. Expect corners, shots, and chaos. The Bavarians average 10 corners per match and over eight shots on target in most home fixtures. With Musiala and Davies nearing full fitness, and Gnabry back in rhythm, the hosts will likely pepper the goal early and often. For Kompany, this is about setting the tone again, reasserting dominance after the Emirates stumble.

That said, St Pauli aren’t just passengers. They’ve studied Arsenal’s high-pressing blueprint and will try to frustrate Bayern by clogging the middle. A compact shape, deeper lines, and long clearances, basic survival tactics, but sometimes effective for a half or two. Still, given Bayern’s 100% record in games with over 2.5 goals and St Pauli’s poor defensive record, it’s tough to imagine anything but a one-way traffic affair. A bold prediction? Bayern could run riot again. But as always in football, momentum can swing in a heartbeat.

In the end, this matchup feels less like a question of who wins and more about how big the margin gets. Bayern’s attacking metrics and home form make them an almost unstoppable force, while St Pauli’s slide continues. For punters, the focus is likely on goal markets and shot totals, because one thing’s nearly guaranteed: Bayern will keep firing. And if St Pauli can weather the storm even for a while, that alone might feel like a win. For more stats and insight, check out our Bundesliga Predictions section at XpertStats.