Real Madrid vs Mallorca Prediction 30.08.2025
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Real Madrid vs Mallorca Prediction
Real Madrid vs Mallorca Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchday 3 of La Liga 2025-26, set for Saturday, August 30. The Santiago Bernabeu hosts a clash between two sides with very different starts to the season. Here at XpertStats, you’ll also find fresh LaLiga Predictions with detailed insights and betting angles.
- Real Madrid eye a third straight win to open their La Liga season.
- Mallorca return to the Bernabeu after a shaky start to the campaign.
- Kylian Mbappe has already scored three goals in two matches for Los Blancos.
- Mallorca’s last away win at Real Madrid came back in May 2009.
Real Madrid might not have been firing on all cylinders yet, but they’ve been ruthless where it counts. A scrappy 1-0 win over Osasuna on August 19 was followed by a comfortable 3-0 victory against Real Oviedo, with Mbappe and Vinicius showing early signs of chemistry. Xabi Alonso knows the pressure is immense this season, especially with Barcelona lurking. Can he really afford any slip before the international break? Probably not. The Bernabeu crowd will demand fireworks, and history says Madrid usually delivers against Mallorca.
Los Blancos’ record in this matchup is striking: 46 wins in 75 meetings, including a 2-1 home win last season. The defensive injuries, Bellingham, Mendy, Camavinga still sidelined, haven’t slowed them down much, though Alonso may tweak the attack, with Vinicius expected to start over Rodrygo. Mbappe, already decisive with three goals in two games, looks hungry for more. That’s a bold move from Alonso, leaning heavily on his new talisman, but maybe the right one.
Mallorca’s season has been the opposite: a disastrous 3-0 opening loss to Barcelona with two red cards, then a rescue mission at home where Mateu Morey’s 87th-minute strike salvaged a point against Celta Vigo. They’re sitting 16th, but Jagoba Arrasate has reasons to believe things will settle. Vedat Muriqi is back from suspension, and new signing Pablo Torre from Barcelona could add some spark behind the front two. Still, going to the Bernabeu? That’s a mountain, not a hill.
The Pirates haven’t beaten Madrid away since May 2009, and last managed any win in this fixture back in February 2023. They finished 10th last season, just four points from Europe, which shows the squad has quality. But quality doesn’t always travel well to Madrid. Can they pull off a shock? It’s hard to see it. The gulf in sharpness, confidence, and momentum right now is vast. For Mallorca, anything other than a heavy defeat would feel like a small victory. Expect Madrid to push the tempo and make it three wins from three. That’s why our LaLiga Predictions lean firmly towards the home side.
Real Madrid’s record against Mallorca speaks for itself: nine straight home wins in La Liga against the Pirates, scoring 27 goals in those matches. Los Blancos come into this clash on the back of two victories, looking sharper with each game. Kylian Mbappe has already proven decisive, netting three times in two matches, while Vinicius added a goal last weekend. Mallorca, on the other hand, struggled in their opener, losing 3-0 to Barcelona and scraping a draw at home against Celta Vigo thanks to an 87th-minute equalizer. Their away record at the Bernabeu is dreadful, with their last win there dating back to May 2009. Jagoba Arrasate’s men lack the defensive resilience to hold Madrid’s attack for 90 minutes. Even with Muriqi back from suspension, the Pirates face an uphill task. Madrid, chasing a perfect start before the international break, are unlikely to drop points at home.
Real Madrid have already shown their scoring ability this season with four goals in two matches, and they aren’t even firing at full capacity yet. Mbappe is adapting seamlessly, netting three times, while Vinicius has chipped in as well. Their attacking depth means chances are never in short supply. Historically, this fixture almost always produces goals: Madrid scored twice in both league games against Mallorca last season, including a 2-1 victory at the Bernabeu. Mallorca’s defense doesn’t travel well either, conceding three to Barcelona on opening day, and their backline can be stretched when forced to chase the ball. Even if the visitors score with Muriqi back in the lineup, they have a threat in the box it’s hard to see Madrid settling for a 1-0 win. At the Bernabeu, attacking football is expected, and with both sides capable of finding the net, over 1.5 goals looks very realistic.
Kylian Mbappe has wasted no time making his mark in La Liga. Two games, three goals, and a constant menace in the final third. Against Oviedo, he fired multiple shots on goal, scoring twice and forcing the keeper into action more than once. Even in the tight opener against Osasuna, he found the breakthrough when Madrid needed it most. At the Bernabeu, Madrid dominate possession, which means Mbappe sees plenty of the ball in dangerous areas. Mallorca’s defense, while disciplined, often struggles against pace and direct running exactly the kind of threat Mbappe thrives on. With Vinicius drawing defenders on one side and Madrid’s midfield feeding him service, the Frenchman is almost guaranteed opportunities. Over 1.5 shots on target feels well within reach, given his confidence and role as Madrid’s focal point. Expect him to test the keeper several times across the 90 minutes.
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