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Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction Premier League 23.11.2025

Q: Who will win between Leeds and Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are in stronger form, but Leeds at Elland Road remain unpredictable. A draw or narrow Villa win looks most likely.

Alexandru Florin 22 November 2025

Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction Premier League

Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips for the Premier League clash, scheduled for Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 14:00 GMT. The match will be broadcast live on Sky Sports and NOW TV from Elland Road in Leeds, with referee Jones R. officiating. Leeds, sitting precariously near the relegation zone, desperately need a result, while Aston Villa continue their surge toward the top six. In this article, you’ll discover Premier League Predictions and expert insights from XpertStats analysts.

Leeds have failed to score in their last three home matches against Aston Villa.
Aston Villa have won five of their last six Premier League games.
Leeds have lost four of their last five league fixtures, conceding six goals in their last two away games.
Villa are unbeaten in five straight meetings with Leeds since October 2020.

Daniel Farke’s Leeds return home after two bruising away losses to Brighton and Nottingham Forest. Six goals conceded and just one scored, it’s been a painful fortnight. Lukas Nmecha’s lone strike against Forest felt like a lifeline that slipped away far too quickly. The Whites are stuck in 16th place, just one point above the drop zone, and their inability to keep clean sheets, eight matches now without one, speaks volumes. Can they finally turn Elland Road into a fortress again? Hard to say, but Farke’s men will need every ounce of grit they’ve got.

Leeds’ attacking stats tell a story of inconsistency: an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, with 60% of their games going over 1.5 goals. They create chances, sure, but finishing them off has been another matter entirely. Their record against top-half teams hasn’t helped either; no wins since October 2022 against a top-10 side. Even so, with a full squad available and home support roaring behind them, there’s always that unpredictability Leeds fans cling to. Football loves an underdog, right?

Meanwhile, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa are riding a wave of confidence. After a rough start, the Villans have flipped the script, five wins in their last six league games and a stunning 4-0 demolition of Bournemouth before the international break. It’s the kind of form that turns doubters into believers. Emery’s tactical tweaks have made them a nightmare to play against, especially when John McGinn and Ollie Watkins hit rhythm. Still, Villa’s away form remains shaky, just one win on the road this season. That’s a stat they’ll want to fix quickly.

Villa’s balance has been their biggest strength lately, averaging 0.6 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game, keeping things tight. Their defensive discipline and quick transitions could spell trouble for a Leeds backline low on confidence. Even with a few fitness concerns: Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, and Amadou Onana among them: Emery has enough depth to rotate smartly. Momentum’s on their side, but football rarely follows a script. Leeds at home, desperate for points? It might just get messy. For more insights like this, check our latest Premier League Predictions on XpertStats.

Ahead of Aston Villa’s Premier League trip to Leeds United, Unai Emery stressed the importance of improved away form and highlighted key updates on Ollie Watkins and Amadou Onana as the squad continues to progress. He praised John McGinn’s international achievements and reaffirmed his focus on long-term development despite external distractions. Source: BBC Sport.

X2
Backing Aston Villa on the double chance (X2) looks sensible given their form and Leeds’ struggles. Villa have gone unbeaten in their last five meetings with Leeds, winning four, while the hosts have lost four of their last five league fixtures. Emery’s side have rediscovered their rhythm, winning five of their previous six games, including that emphatic 4-0 win over Bournemouth. Leeds, meanwhile, haven’t kept a clean sheet in eight matches and average just 1.2 goals scored per game. Even at Elland Road, where they’ve been stronger, their attack often runs cold under pressure. Villa’s defense, conceding just one goal per game on average, should cope with Leeds’ sporadic attacks. Considering the momentum and tactical stability of the visitors, avoiding defeat looks the most reasonable call here. It’s not without risk, Leeds are fighting for survival, but Villa’s composure and quality edge give them the advantage.

Under 4.5 Goals
Backing Under 4.5 Goals looks safe considering both teams’ current patterns. Leeds’ games feature an average of 2.2 goals, and Villa’s sit at 1.6, both well below the 4.5 threshold. Villa have yet to be involved in a single match surpassing four goals this season. Leeds’ 60% rate for Over 2.5 Goals suggests moderate scoring, not chaos. Defensively, each side concedes about one goal per game, meaning long stretches could be tight and cagey. Farke’s Leeds will likely try to slow Villa’s transitions, while Emery’s side tends to protect leads rather than chase additional goals. Historically, meetings between these two have been low-scoring, with no recent head-to-head surpassing four goals. All signs point toward a tactical duel rather than a shootout—intense, physical, but controlled. Under 4.5 Goals aligns perfectly with the numbers and the narrative.