Italy vs Estonia Prediction 05.09.2025
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Italy vs Estonia Prediction
Italy vs Estonia Prediction and Betting Tips for Friday’s crucial World Cup qualifier at the Gewiss Stadium. The Azzurri return home after a turbulent summer, looking to restore pride and momentum. In this article, you’ll also find World Cup Predictions from our XpertStats experts.
- Italy face Estonia in Bergamo on Friday as World Cup 2026 qualifying heats up.
- New boss Gennaro Gattuso takes charge after Luciano Spalletti’s dramatic exit.
- Italy trail Norway by nine points in Group I and can’t afford another slip.
- Estonia are chasing only their second win of the qualifiers after beating Moldova.
For Italy, this match is more than just three points. It’s about salvaging a campaign that started in chaos. Spalletti’s reign ended in bizarre fashion he was dismissed before his last game despite a 2-0 win over Moldova. Now, Gennaro Gattuso steps in, a fiery leader with little time to waste. His decision to return to a four-man backline shows he’s willing to strip things down and rebuild. Can he really turn things around? That’s the question hovering over Bergamo on Friday night.
Gattuso’s squad selection reflects both caution and freshness. Donnarumma, fresh from his Manchester City switch, will wear the armband, while forwards like Kean, Raspadori, and Scamacca all fight for minutes. Francesco Pio Esposito and Giovanni Leoni bring youthful intrigue, though they’ll likely start on the bench. Italy’s problem isn’t talent, it’s belief. After missing two straight World Cups, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and dropping points here would be unthinkable.
Estonia, meanwhile, know the odds are stacked against them. They’ve lost all seven previous meetings with Italy, most recently a 4-0 defeat in 2020. Coach Jurgen Henn brings in a mix of young and experienced names, but the absence of captain Karol Mets weakens their already fragile defense. Arsenal-owned Karl Hein will be tested between the sticks, while Henri Anier and Rauno Sappinen try to find space against Italy’s backline. They’ve shown flashes: that 3-2 win in Moldova proved they can score, but keeping the ball out remains their Achilles’ heel.
Still, Estonia won’t simply roll over. They’ve scored in three of their four qualifiers, but defensive lapses cost them dearly against Israel and Norway. Facing Italy away is another mountain entirely, yet this is football, upsets do happen. But history and form lean heavily toward the Azzurri. Expect Italy to push for control early and test Estonia’s resolve, with players like Kean carrying the weight of expectation. One thing’s for sure: this isn’t just another qualifier, it’s a statement game. And with World Cup Predictions hanging in the balance, the pressure is very, very real.
Moise Kean looks primed to make his mark against Estonia, and the numbers back him. Italy have created plenty of chances in their last two qualifiers, but they’ve lacked a consistent finisher. Kean’s form at Juventus has been strong, with sharp movement and a knack for attacking the near post. Against an Estonian side that has conceded eight goals in four matches and is yet to keep a clean sheet, his pace and power could be decisive. Estonia’s defense, missing their captain Karol Mets, has looked vulnerable against direct runs, and Kean thrives in exploiting those gaps. With Gattuso eager to stamp authority in his debut, starting Kean up front makes sense – and he’s likely to get multiple looks at goal. Given Italy’s attacking setup and the opponent’s leaky backline, backing Moise Kean to score feels like one of the strongest picks available in this qualifier.
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