The stage couldn’t be bigger: Benfica, sitting third, look to close a three-point gap on their city rivals. Mourinho’s men are unbeaten in their last four, grinding out a 2-1 win at Nacional last weekend after a dramatic late comeback led by Pavlidis. The numbers tell a story: 2.33 goals scored on average, but 0.83 conceded. It’s a side that loves to control the ball, create width, and pepper the box with crosses. Still, consistency at home has been their Achilles’ heel. Only half of their league games at Da Luz have ended in victory. Can they finally turn that around against the team that’s been their biggest thorn?

Sporting, meanwhile, come into this one flying. Four wins on the bounce, a 4-0 demolition of Estrela Amadora last Sunday, and an away record that reads like perfection: six wins out of six. Rui Borges has the Lions playing ruthless, dynamic football. With 2.33 goals scored per match and just 0.5 conceded, their balance between defense and attack is impressive. The front line, led by Suarez, oozes confidence. Yet, despite that perfect away form, history whispers a warning: they haven’t won at Da Luz since 2021. And that kind of ghost doesn’t go quietly.

Benfica’s key man Pavlidis, leading the Golden Boot race with 10 goals, looks set to cause headaches again. Mourinho will count on Prestianni and Schjelderup to bring pace and creativity down the flanks, while Richard Rios’s return from suspension gives the midfield an extra layer of grit. Missing Lukebakio, Bah, and Bruma hurts, but there’s a sense of belief growing again. “It was a difficult victory, but a deserved one,” Mourinho said after Nacional. You could feel the pride in his voice – that fighting spirit could define their night.

As for Sporting, Borges will likely stick with his winning formula. Suarez is almost untouchable right now, while Pote’s return adds flair on the left. A few knocks, Fresneda, Inacio, might raise eyebrows, but all signs suggest they’ll feature. The Lions’ average of 12.16 corners per game this season shows how aggressively they push forward, while Benfica’s 10.34 keeps the tempo equally high. Expect end-to-end football, packed stands, and plenty of set pieces. It’s hard to say how this will end, but one thing’s certain: this Lisbon Derby has all the ingredients for a thriller – and another bold entry in our Liga Portugal Predictions.

José Mourinho stressed Benfica’s ambition ahead of the derby with Sporting, highlighting the team’s recent progress, competitive mindset, and growing collective identity. He praised his squad’s humility, unity, and improving performances, while acknowledging Sporting’s strength and unpredictability. Mourinho also expressed respect for Rui Borges’ work and dismissed concerns over external factors, keeping full focus on Benfica’s tactical preparation. Source: A Bola