Auxerre vs Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchday 11 of the Ligue 1, scheduled for Saturday, November 1, 2025, at 20:05 GMT. The clash takes place at the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps and will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime and Ligue 1+. Auxerre are desperate to snap a five-match winless run, while Marseille look to recover momentum in the title race. In this preview, we’ll break down the form, fouls, and fiery potential using detailed Soccer Stats from XpertStats analysts.

• Auxerre have failed to win any of their last five Ligue 1 games.
• Marseille could move top of the table with a win this Saturday.
• Auxerre’s matches average 7.4 cards per game, the highest in Ligue 1.
• Marseille remain unbeaten in six of their last seven league fixtures.

Auxerre’s form has dipped alarmingly. Christophe Pelissier’s side sit near the bottom, with just two wins all season and a worrying goal average of 0.8 per match. The real story, though, lies in their discipline, or lack of it. With an average of 7.4 cards per game and over 3.5 cards in every single fixture so far, matches involving Auxerre are becoming must-watch for the chaos alone. They’ve also failed to score in back-to-back matches, and that dry spell could extend unless Danny Namaso and Lassine Sinayoko rediscover their spark.

Marseille, meanwhile, come into this one looking a bit shaken. Roberto De Zerbi’s men started the season in blistering form, but a three-game winless streak across all competitions has dimmed the mood. Still, with 1.2 goals scored per match and a defense conceding just one on average, this side has balance, they just need to refocus. De Zerbi’s main issue? Injuries. With Balerdi, Kondogbia, and Gouiri all sidelined, he’ll be counting on Hojbjerg’s control and Greenwood’s directness to steady the ship. Can they deliver under pressure? Hard to say but OM’s away form will be tested again.

Discipline could play a decisive role here. Auxerre’s aggressive tackling (14.6 fouls committed per game) against Marseille’s assertive midfielders is a recipe for tension. Referees have been busy when these two meet, and that trend isn’t likely to stop. While Auxerre average 4.6 cards against them per game, Marseille’s matches also see nearly five bookings on average, proof that sparks tend to fly when OM are on the road. Expect a heated battle, especially if the early stages get physical.

Prediction-wise, it’s a tough one. Auxerre’s home advantage might count for something, especially since they’ve beaten Marseille in both meetings last season. But Marseille’s superior squad depth and their hunger to chase PSG could tilt things their way. One thing feels almost certain though: this won’t be a quiet night. The numbers, and the tension, point toward a fiery encounter with plenty of bookings. That’s why the betting tip of the night leans toward Over 3.5 Cards  the data supports it, and the history does too.