Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 30.08.2025

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips for Saturday’s La Liga clash at Mendizorrotza Stadium. Atletico Madrid are desperate to shake off their slow start, but Alaves have turned this fixture into a tricky one in recent years. In this article, you’ll discover LaLiga Predictions from XpertStats analysts.

• Alaves have beaten Atletico twice at Mendizorrotza since 2023, staying unbeaten in three straight home meetings.
• Diego Simeone’s side are still searching for their first win of the 2025-26 season.
• Key players out: Jose Gimenez (Atletico) and Lucas Boye (Alaves).
• Alaves sit 9th in La Liga with 3 points, while Atletico are 14th with just one point.

Alaves come into this match with mixed emotions. Eduardo Coudet’s side started the season on the right foot, beating Levante 2-1, only to fall narrowly to Real Betis last weekend. Still, sitting 9th after two games is a solid platform compared to last year’s near brush with relegation. Can they use that home momentum against a wounded Atletico? History suggests they can: Alaves haven’t lost to the capital club at home since January 2021, with two wins and a draw since then. Mendizorrotza has become a place where giants stumble, and the home crowd knows it.

Atletico, on the other hand, look nothing like title contenders yet. A 2-1 defeat to Espanyol and a 1-1 draw with Elche have left them 14th, and Diego Simeone is under pressure already. The squad saw plenty of changes in the summer, but the chemistry just isn’t clicking. “We need balance, we need goals,” Simeone admitted last week. That’s easier said than done when Alaves have managed to shut Atletico out in their last three visits to Vitoria. Can Griezmann, Alvarez or Sorloth finally break the curse?

Squad news adds another layer. Alaves will miss Lucas Boye, while Hugo Novoa and Nikola Maras face late fitness tests. Mariano Diaz is still waiting to prove himself, but Toni Martinez should once again lead the line. For Atletico, Jose Gimenez and Alex Baena are sidelined, leaving the defense thinner than Simeone would like. He’s likely to stick with Sorloth and Alvarez up front, supported by Thiago Almada and Giuliano Simeone on the wings. It’s a strong lineup on paper, but paper doesn’t win games.

What makes this clash intriguing is the psychological edge. Alaves believe they can frustrate Atletico, and recent head-to-head results back them up. Atletico, meanwhile, are desperate, maybe even desperate enough to take risks. Will that pay off, or will we see another frustrating afternoon for the Rojiblancos? It’s hard to say, but one thing’s certain: this match will be as much about nerves as it is about tactics. Fans checking the latest LaLiga Predictions will know that form favors the hosts, but class is still on Atletico’s side. Saturday will tell us which one wins out.