Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchday 12 of La Liga, scheduled for Sunday, November 9, 2025, at 15:15 GMT. The clash will take place at the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas and will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime and Premier Sports 2. Both sides come into this with very different ambitions, Real Madrid fighting to extend their lead at the top, while Rayo look to stay within touching distance of the European spots. For more insights and stats, check out LaLiga Predictions from XpertStats tipsters.

• Real Madrid lead La Liga by five points over Barcelona heading into Matchday 12.
• Rayo Vallecano sit mid-table with 14 points from 11 matches.
• Madrid boast the league’s best away record, while Rayo struggle at home.
• Both teams average high corner counts, hinting at an open, attacking game.

Rayo Vallecano’s season has been a mixed bag so far. Four wins, two draws, and five defeats leave them 10th, not bad, but not great either. They’ve scored just 0.75 goals per match on average while conceding the same, and that’s a problem when you’re facing Madrid’s firepower. Even so, Rayo’s spirit can’t be dismissed. Their 3-2 comeback win over Lech Poznan in the Conference League showed a resilience that’s easy to admire. Still, that 4-0 loss to Villarreal earlier this month raised big questions about their defensive structure. Can they really shut down Mbappé and Vinícius?

Playing at Vallecas is never simple, though. It’s a tight ground, loud, restless, and often unforgiving to big names. Rayo’s fans have seen their team grab points against Madrid before, and their record of being unbeaten in the last three home games against Los Blancos gives them reason to dream. Statistically, Rayo dominate corner battles: averaging over 13 per match, but turning that control into goals has been another story. With Alvaro Garcia leading the charge and five goals to his name, they’ll need him firing again.

On the other side, Real Madrid come in licking their wounds after that 1-0 Champions League defeat to Liverpool. A rare off-night for a team that’s been electric in La Liga, averaging 2.4 goals per game and sitting five points clear at the summit. Bellingham and Mbappé have been key, with Valverde and Rodrygo providing the rhythm. But there’s a small cloud, they’ve lost both league games away from home this season. Still, this squad knows how to respond. As Xabi Alonso said midweek, “We can’t lose focus. Every match matters.”

So, what’s the smart play here? Madrid’s quality and experience give them the edge, even if Vallecas has its traps. With 80% of their matches going over 2.5 goals and Rayo prone to late collapses, it’s hard to see Los Blancos stumbling again. Expect energy, drama, and maybe a few nervy moments, but in the end, Real Madrid’s class should shine through. That’s why this fixture sits high on our LaLiga Predictions radar this weekend.